According to Mining Weekly (Mining Weekly), the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest annual report, The Global Critical Minerals Outlook (Global Critical Minerals Outlook), that supply is increasingly concentrated in a few countries and export restrictions are spreading, putting global critical minerals markets at greater risk.
The report provides the latest data and analysis on supply, demand and investment in key energy-related minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths.
In addition, the IEA has upgraded its online query platform (Critical Minerals Data Explorer) for key minerals data to help users find the latest IEA forecasts.
For the first time, the report includes an analysis of energy-related strategic minerals that are critical to high-tech aerospace and advanced manufacturing industries.
“In today’s world of heightened geopolitical conflict, critical minerals have become a top priority for ensuring global energy and economic security. Through our world-leading data, analysis and policy advice, the IEA provides critical support to countries around the world in developing medium-and long-term strategies,” said Fatih Birol Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA.
“These new analyses review the stakes and what needs to be done to improve the resilience and diversity of key minerals, which are critical to ensuring reliable, affordable and sustainable energy in the 21st century,” he added.
The report found that key mineral markets are becoming more concentrated, rather than shrinking, especially for smelting and processing. For copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths, the share of the top three producers rose from an average of 82 percent in 2020 to 86 percent in 2024, with almost all of the growth coming from the largest producers.
Although policymakers are now aware of these challenges, the IEA’s careful analysis of announced projects shows that key mineral supply chains are making slow progress toward diversification. Under current policy conditions and investment trends, the average share of the top three suppliers will only slightly decrease over the next decade, returning to 2020 levels of concentration.
“Even if the market is well supplied, critical mineral supply chains are vulnerable to supply shocks, whether from extreme weather, technical failures or trade disruptions. Supply shocks have far-reaching effects, raising prices for consumers or reducing industry competitiveness,” Birol warned.
The report shows that demand for key energy minerals has been growing strongly in recent years. Lithium demand is expected to grow by nearly 30 percent in 2024, surpassing the 10 percent annual growth rate seen in the 2010s.
The report also reveals risks to the balance between supply and demand over the next 10 years. Investment in key minerals is weakening, with growth expected to be only 5% in 2024, down from 14% in 2023. Exploration activity in 2024 is largely unchanged, with growth halted since 2020 and signs of a slowdown in startup funding.
The report highlights the risks facing the copper market. As countries expand their power grids, demand for copper will soar, and current copper mine projects predict a 30 percent supply shortfall by 2035.
Increasing export restrictions will also affect supply security. Fifty-five per cent of the energy-related strategic minerals covered in this report are subject to some form of export control. More importantly, restrictions cover not only raw ore and smelting products but also processing technologies.
Analysis of 20 energy-related strategic minerals shows that supply disruptions can have a serious impact on the economy, even though the market is small. Prices of 15 minerals are more volatile than crude oil.
This year’s outlook also explores the mineral supply chain for emerging battery technologies such as lithium iron phosphate and sodium ion, which are challenging existing nickel-based lithium-ion batteries.
The report notes that these technologies still face high levels of risk.
Source of article: https://geoglobal.mnr.gov.cn/zx/kczygl/zcdt/202505/t20250523_9343708.htm